The AI-Era Utility Asset Turnover Wave

Circular asset disposition, investment recovery and platform strategy for US Utilities

The AI-era grid buildout will require substantial new utility infrastructure. It will also accelerate the flow of equipment, components, and materials leaving first service. Under the central AI-driven upgrade case developed in this paper, U.S. electric utilities could manage approximately $1.17 trillion in gross original-cost-equivalent retired-asset flow between 2026 and 2035, in constant 2026 dollars. Annual flow rises from $101 billion in 2026 to $132 billion in 2035.

This forecast measures the gross original-cost-equivalent value of assets leaving first service. It does not measure capital expenditure, net book value, resale proceeds, scrap proceeds, commodity value, or net recovery value. It measures the scale of the next-life decision facing utilities: whether an asset should remain in service, be redeployed, repaired, refurbished, resold, harvested for components, recycled, or securely disposed.